The Big Picture
Recruiting is a special time of year for college football fans. Like college football’s actual season, there are hotly argued rankings, but no scores to definitively define one school a winner and the other the loser. Everyone wins come the first Wednesday in February: hundreds of over-exploited, 17/18 year old high school students capture the country’s attention for a day as they choose the best destination for them to play football, get a degree, and shape their future. A difficult decision for any high school senior, made tremendously more difficult by the extraordinary amount of pressure and attention from coaches, mentors, and the media. Some recruits flourish within the recruiting environment, having fun with the process and absorbing the attention with perspective. Others it indoctrinates with an abnormal sense of entitlement.
Of course on signing day all these recruits seem like model citizens, and are certainly the players of tomorrow that will turn your school’s program around. Or maybe these players will be the difference between conference champions and national. For this one day all college football fans experience the brief relief of potential. The ultimate opiate for fan bases still grumpy over last season, National Signing Day always makes the light at the end of the tunnel burn a little brighter. Nothing has to be proven by these player’s just yet; we can Youtube their high school highlights and dream of them punishing rival schools similarly for years to come. Recruits are coddled patiently by fans because of their potential for a few years, but quickly turn when their Rivals.com 4-star rating doesn’t translate into the appropriate amount of tackles or touchdowns.
There is an inordinate correlation between the perceived impact of a recruiting class and the amount of plays to be participated in. There will always be more potential for failure than success because of the scarcity of playing time. There will be spectacular failures and unexpected success. Programs like TCU have become national powers building with recruits overlooked by Texas’s three BCS programs. Auburn managed to swing a national championship thanks to the transfer of Cam Newton from UF (via JUCO); and the transfer of $200k from an Auburn booster to Cecil Newton’s bank account. The point being: a recruiting class can help, but it takes a great program, a little luck, and a lot of money to win a national championship.
While I am writing this I do realize I will spend my entire afternoon tomorrow watching ESPNU and refreshing no less than 4 recruiting sites constantly. From there I will proceed to spend my entire evening fantasizing about the players we successfully signed and disavowing any defectors. My conclusion will be the certainty of no less than 8 player’s immediate impact. The amount of time spent following your school’s recruiting trail may be disproportionate to the amount of impact they are realistically going to have on your program, but they are important. If you score three 5-star prospects in a class, if just one of them becomes an NFL caliber star they can change a whole season. The more highly ranked recruits you have the higher the odds one, or many, of them will meet or exceed expectations.
Taking a look to tomorrow there are a few major recruits still with decisions to make and announce:
Dorial Green-Beckham is the #1 rated wide receiver, rated as a 5-star prospect by Rivals. At 6’6” 220 lbs anyone would expect him to be good, but with a 4.4 40 yard dash time Beckham has the potential to be dominant like Julie Jones or AJ Green, except he is bigger, and faster. Word is he is between Missouri or Arkansas. He will be the headline of whichever class he decides to sign with.
Eddie Goldman is massive in his own right at 6’4” 307 lbs. Rated a 5-star by Rivals, he is considered the 7th best prospect in the country at any position. He is thought to be leaning towards FSU which already has a class crowded with linemen. He has said publicly he does not care about the depth chart, confident he will earn his playing time wherever he goes. He is known to have a strong relationship with FSU coach Odell Haggins. The bottom line is Goldman will be wearing a shade of red next year: either Alabama’s Crimson or Florida State’s Garnet, expect Garnet.
Ronald Darby a defensive back who had a solid commitment to Notre Dame. He didn’t stick though, reopening his recruitment, and now looks bound for Tallahassee to join Mark Stoops’ defense. He measures in at 5’11” 172 lbs. to go with a 4.37 40 time and a 4-star rating. If not FSU, Darby could be headed to Clemson or Auburn.
Tracy Howard is the only cornerback ranked above Darby, earning the full five stars. He has choices down to the three Florida powers. He has been considered a solid Florida commit at various points, but could stay home to play for Miami. FSU is a contender here, making a big surge the last few weeks. I would be surprised to see him in anything but Gator blue tomorrow, but FSU or Miami could just as easily steal him.
Leonard Williams is the fifth rated Defensive End prospect, out of Daytona Beach Williams is a solid 6’5” 255 lbs. Florida wants to keep him home. USC wants him to stay on the beach, but relocate from the Atlantic to Pacific coast. A lot of experts expect him to end up at USC, but if the Gators keep him home it could help push them to the top rated class.
The top classes are all the usual suspects: USC, Alabama, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Ohio State. NCAA sanctions including a one-year bowl ban could not stop Ohio State from claiming its spot in the top five recruit rankings. Florida State, the school I am currently a student of has put together another top five class despite being limited on roster space and scholarships. The highlights include defensive linemen Mario Edwards and Dante Fowler Jr. 5-star prospect and number one rated dual-threat quarterback Jameis Winston is a great pickup ensuring a continuity of quality quarterbacking at FSU. Of FSU’s three 5-star prospects only Fowler is from Florida, and if Goldman signs with FSU as expected he would be a third elite out of prospect. He would also be the fifth defensive lineman rated 4-stars or better.
Naming the top class is going to come down to the wire. It could be decided by the whim of one or two players. No matter who comes in first the future will look a lot brighter for at least a month or two. Unless you’re a Rutgers fan.
S. Darr
great work spence!